Watch out for the Pump and Dump!

Not everyone has a pile of cash lying around...... but, if you do whether big or small, then you might find it a little distressing that you aren't doing something with it.  Do you still feel the sting from the economic crisis and are shying from investing?  Well not to be Debbie-downer but there's a lot of people, including myself, that say that being in cash is your most risky holding. Many say that a significant reason for the recent stock rally is that investors feel safer in stocks than in cash.  We have an environment where central banks are printing money like crazy.  It is considered better to actually have an asset.. stocks, property, energy, and commodities  versus having paper cash.  Notice I haven't mentioned bonds as a safe investment.  Remember when I asked where the next bubble was?  Yes it's in bonds;  a direct result of central banks artificially buying down interest rates.   It is now difficult to get better than 2% interest on long-term bonds.. terrible.  And when that bubble bursts and rates pop back up, the principle value of your bonds will sink.  Take this advice and tread lightly on purchasing new bonds.  (Tip : if you have older bonds, say pre-2009ish, they probably have a good interest rate and are worth keeping or selling now for a good profit).

Anyway, so back to the original question.. what to do with that lot of cash under your mattress?  Well unfortunately there aren't too many places that you can safely put all of it at once.  Investing is something that is best spread out over time..  a minimum of a year; better over many.  Why? Because ultimately the markets are like the weather.  You just can't predict with any high percentage where the market will be in 6 months or 2 years. Even most professional investors will admit that they are no good at timing markets.  I personally think that, with experience, you can build confidence with some level of market timing, but it is still unreliable at best.  A good strategy is to "ladder" your investment over time.  This is why your 401k plans are effective because they "ladder" money month to month into the market regardless.. sometimes stocks are purchased at a high and sometimes at a low.. it averages.  What you want to avoid is sitting on your pile until you get really hyped up over an investment, or until you think the market is at a major low.  It will always surprise you.

Something else to be wary of... the "Pump and Dump" effect.  Right now the stock market is at an all time high and a lot of people are excited about the profits in their portfolio.  Now is a time when you will see a lot of "pumping", where financial services companies get everyday people excited to invest more money into the stock market... driving it even higher.  Then, after Wall Street invests several short positions on the markets, coincidentally all sorts of negative financial news will emerge, which will scare the market down... making them money the whole roller coaster ride.  If you follow financial news closely.. you will see the Wall Street machine driving the news media in this Pump and Dump roller coaster.  You can defeat this by laddering your money into your investments over time.

As a final note, I do want to mention that as you ladder your money in, you can start to play with timing.  Everything cycles up and cycles down..... if the market is in a visible trough, perhaps it will pay off to put in a little extra money at that time.  Now that my portfolio is nearly fully vested, and more mature, I do focus more on waiting for troughs and downcycles.  That should come later though!  Don't just sit there collecting green paper.. come up with an extended schedule to give your money some legs.

Question for the week : What do you think will happen to the value of the US Dollar?

I am SO looking forward to being 70!!

< not >

My sense is that a lot of people already agree with me on this one but I think its still worthy of a discussion.  I'm bothered by all of the "pressure" that we seem to get about saving and saving for our retirement.  About 5 years ago I had a financial consultation from Wells Fargo about long term planning.  Basically what it came down to is that I would have to "live on food stamps" so that I could put most of my disposable income into my retirement savings.  This was required if I wanted to maintain the same level of lifestyle as I do now (not that extravagant I might add) through my retirement.  That was the first time I started to realize something was wrong with this whole retirement thing.

Ever since then, things keep happening that make me continue to question this kind of rule about saving all your money to retire.  When I used to live in San Antonio, I had these older neighbors; probably early 70s, and retired of course.  I visited every so often because they let me borrow tools, and I would normally chat for a bit.  Well, I came to realize that old people barely need money for anything!  They are still wearing the same clothes from their fifties, they finished doing all the remodeling they're going to do in the house 20 years ago (so already out-dated again), they go to bed at 730pm every night, eat like humming-birds, still driving their 20 year old cars that have less than 50k miles on them, and don't like to leave the house for long periods of time.  I remember one day I stopped by and they seemed a little more enthusiastic than normal.  It turns out that they were gearing up to go shopping.  They had discovered that they actually needed to buy something!  What was it?  An electrical extension cord.  It was the trip of the week heading out to Home Depot to get that extension cord.  I found this to be quite... depressing really.  And by the way, I know a lot of our parents are like this, so I don't mean to be degrading.  But.... it is a little depressing still.

So now my radar was up anytime I started to see things that refer to retirement planning.  The first thing that started to bother me was the commercials on TV; once again from a lot of the financial services companies, showing exactly the opposite of what I had been seeing in real life. The commercials show somewhat young looking retirees having the adventures of a lifetime because they saved and scrimped and invested for the day they retire.  They're hot air ballooning, hiking, rafting, skydiving, sitting on white sandy beaches drinking cocktails.  It's as if they're trying to show us that being 70 is the prime of our life.  Really??  I would beg to differ.  It seems to me that people in their 70s are the most happy because they are enjoying their family, and grandkids, and watching Glenn Beck.  Yes I know this is grossly generalizing, but I think its somewhat true.  I just don't see a lot of "adventure" occurring when people are that old.... they're not really interested and their bodies hurt!

Now this is really belaboring the point but I'm going to bring it out anyway.  On more than one occasion I've known of people dying within a year or two after retiring.  It just seems so tragic to anticipate it for so long, and then you're gone.  There's some physiology behind that too from what I understand.  Once you stop working, your body and mind can slow way down if you don't keep it stimulated.  It just seems like things can start shutting down.. if you let it.

I guess the point I'm trying to bring home is that a lot of us are in our physical prime now, or at least not too far beyond it :)  Why would we want to be so conservative in these years with the expectation that we will have our fun and adventures in our late 60s and 70s??  That is quite a scary line of thinking.  Now I won't delude myself to think that what I'm saying is ground-breaking.  I think a lot of us agree on these notions.  That being said, the question is what are we doing about it???  Yes we must save for our retirement.. that is not in question.  I do certainly, but I don't save anywhere close to what Wells Fargo is telling me I need to save.  I know for a fact already that when I'm old I won't need a damn thing.  Plan an adventure now when your body is still telling you that you want adventure.  Don't worry that you won't hit that target number that some software program says you need to hit.  Be smart with your money and savings, do the best you can, but put some of that buying power to use now!  Besides................ it will help the economy.

Question of the Week : What's your next adventure???